This weekend is the 71st running of the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) and the first jewel of the Japanese Triple Crown. Last year’s Satsuki Sho winner, Victoire Pisa, went on to place in two other G1 races, as well as win the Arima Kinen (G1) in the same year. This year he went on to surprise us all with a stunning victory in the $10M Dubai World Cup back in March. So who will win the Satsuki Sho this year?

Well that question has been complicated slightly do to the change in location. Normally the Satsuki Sho is held in the middle of April, a week after the Oka Sho. It is also normally held at Nakayama Racecourse in Chiba Prefecture. Due of damage from the catastrophic 9.0 earthquake just about 180 miles away, Nakayama had to shutdown in the middle of it’s spring meet. So the JRA moved the Satsuki Sho back a week and to Tokyo Racecourse, about two hours away from Nakayama. This will be the first time in 23 years, and the 11th time over all, that the Satsuki Sho has been held at Tokyo. This could give some horses an advantage. How so? Well Nakayama has a very short stretch (roughly furlong and a half), which favors everyone but the closers while Tokyo has an exceptionally LONG stretch (roughly two and a half furlongs) so closers have a better shot of making it to the front. Also Nakayama is a European style right handed track while Tokyo is a American style left handed track. Things that might not mean much to some horses could make or break others.

Let’s look at the contenders...

71st Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) [G1]

April 24th, 2011 Tokyo Racecourse

3 Year Old, 2000m, Turf

Post - Horse - Sire - Jockey - Trainer

1 - Stella Rossa - Heart’s Cry - Y. Kawada - K. Sumii

This Shadai owned colt broke his maiden at Tokyo back in February and was a close 3rd in the G2 Spring Stakes at the end of March. He will be going a furlong longer than he has gone before in the Satsuki Sho. All of his previous starts have been at 1800m.

2 - Danon Ballade - Deep Impact - Y. Take - Y. Ikee

One of three sons of Deep Impact trying to win the race their father did back in 2005, is two for four. He won the Radio Nikkei (G3) last year but in his lone attempt at Tokyo in February in the Kyodo News Hai (G3) but he flopped and came in 9th. He has won at 2000m but not on a left handed track.

3 - Northern River - Agnes Tachyon - H. Shii - H. Asami

The son of the late Agnes Tachyon has a lot to prove this weekend. While he is obviously a solid sprinter and a capable miler, he has not raced beyond a mile so he will have two extra furlongs to deal with in his first G1 attempt.

4 - Sadamu Patek - Fuji Kiseki - Y. Iwata - M. Nishizono

He could very well be the favorite going into the Satsuki Sho after a solid performance in the Yayoi Sho (G2) in March, which is 2000m. This prep has produced several past Satsuki Sho winners including last year’s Victoire Pisa. He has also won at Tokyo, last year’s Tokyo Sports Hai 2yo Stakes (G2) which is run at 1800m.

5 - Nakayama Knight - Stay Gold - Y. Shibata - Y. Ninomiya

This golden Stay Gold colt has never been out of the money and two of his three wins have been at Tokyo. He was 2nd by a nose to Belshazzar in the Hopeful Stakes last December going 2000m at Nakayama and has won going 1800m in the G3 Kyodo News Hai at Tokyo. He could definitely be one to watch this year, not just in this race, and will be at short odds for the rest of the year if he keeps it up.

6 - Danon Mill - Jungle Pocket - H. Uchida - H. Fujiwara

He is one of the untested colts in this field, but he has a stellar trainer and one of the hottest jocks in Japan in his irons so there must be some buzz about this colt I have missed. His most redeeming quality is his like of 2000m, the exact distance of Sunday’s big event. However he has never raced in a graded stakes race.

7 - Roccaverano - Manhattan Cafe - Y. Yoshida- H. Nakamura

Another untested newbie in the mix. He has only raced three times. He broke his maiden last december going 2000m at Kokura Racecourse. Came in 7th in a 2000m allowance at Tokyo though. He won a 2200m ungraded stakes at at the end of February. Now the Satsuki Sho? Hmmm....

8 - Big Romance - Grass Wonder - H. Kitamura - M. Kono

This guy’s story is a confusing one. He flops in his debut which was on the turf, next breaks his maiden on the dirt, wins an ungraded stakes on the dirt again, heads to the local NAR circuit and is 2nd in a G3 Hokkaido 2yo Stakes then wins the G1 2 Year Old Derby in Kawasaki. Making him the only G1 winner in this field. That was all last year. This year they switched him back to turf to run in the Kyodo New Hai where he came in a sad 11th. They should aim for the dirt Triple Crown in the NAR level. The Haneda Hai (S1) on May 11th, followed by the the Tokyo Derby on June 8th, and then the Japan Dirt Derby on July 13th all of which are held at Ohi Racecourse in Tokyo.

9 - Kahuna - King Kamehameha - G. Maruyama - Y. Ikee

While his name is fun, he has not had the best career though his two wins have been at 2000m each. He was second in the Wakaba Stakes, which earned him a seat at this table, but he is usually further back in 4th or 5th. He has never raced at Tokyo or in a graded stakes.

10 - Eishin Osman - Rock of Gibraltar - H. Goto - M. Matsunaga

He won the G2 New Zealand Trophy earlier this month but that is run at a mile. His only non-maiden win was going 1400m. He has never gone 2000m or ran at Tokyo.

11 - Belshazzar - King Kamehameha - K. Ando - K. Matsuda

He won the 2000m ungraded Hopeful Stakes at the end of 2010 but didn’t hit the board in the Kyodo News Hai (G3) that is held at Tokyo and run at 1800m. Though he was only 4th by about 2 lengths. He rebounded in March to come in a super close 2nd to Orfevre in the Spring Stakes.

12 - Orfevre - Stay Gold - K. Ikezoe - Y. Ikee

2009’s Satsuki Sho winner, Unrivaled won the Spring Stakes that year and this talented Stay Gold cold did too. He has only one bad start to his name, the Keio Hai 2yo Stakes (G2) at Tokyo last November where he came in 10th. But since then he has done better and seems to keep improving.

13 - Libertas - Deep Impact - N. Yokoyama - K. Sumii

The second of the Deep Impact brigade, and also owned by the Makoto Kaneko, the owner of Deep Impact, was on fire up until the Spring Stakes where he ran an uncharacteristically bad, coming in 13th. Before that he won a 2000m ungraded stakes and was 3rd in the Asahi Hai Futurity (G1). As long he can rebound from his last race, he might end up winning not only G1 glory for his sire but his sire’s old owner as well.

14 - Fateful War - Stay Gold - K. Tanaka - S. Ito

He is my choice, but it is more sentimental than knowing any secret. He won his debut in style, going 1800m at Tokyo. He was 3rd in the G3 1800m Tokyo Sports 2yo Stakes and then 3rd in the 2000m ungraded Hopeful Stakes. He has only raced once this year, winning the Keisai Hai (G3, 2000m). He can go the distance and he likes Tokyo. But the Keisei hai hasn’t produced a Satsuki Sho winner. Maybe the change up will play to my boys strengths! But sadly he is starting from pretty far out.

15 - Debonair - Agnes Tachyon - T. Sato - K. Nakatake

Took this colt all fall to break his maiden, breaking it on the literal last day of the 2010 JRA racing. But since then he has been running with the big boys, maybe he need some more time to mature. He was 2nd to Fateful War in the Keisei Hai back in January and he was a very close 3rd in the Yayoi Sho (G2) in March. Maybe the best is yet to come.

16 - Tosen Ra - Deep Impact - M. Ebina - H. Fujiwara

The third and final Deep Impact colt trying to help his sire capture the first classic race and probably going to be the favored of the three. He is coming off a win in the G3 Kisaragi Sho (1800m) and was a close 3rd in two other 2000m ungraded stakes. He has not been raced as often as the other but not by much.

17 - Pray - Rock of Gibraltar - M. Matsuoka - M. Saito

This colt has had a very impressive career, hitting the board 7 out of 8 tries. Broke his maiden on his 3rd try at Tokyo going 1800m and was 3rd in the Keisei Hai. Other than a distant 5th in the Hopful Stakes he has been 2nd in every other race! He was 2nd by only half a length in the Yayoi Sho. He might be a dark horse to play.

18 - All as One - Neo Universe - S. Fujita - M. Ryoke

He won the Sapporo 2yo Stakes (G3) last summer and was second in last year’s Radio Nikkei Sho (G3, 2000m) but in his one race this year, the G2 2000m Yayoi sho he was a disappointing 8th.