Yesterday was the last major race of 2011, the Tokyo Daishoten at Ohi Racecourse in Tokyo. This is the first time it has been run as an internationally recognized G1 race, not a JPN-1 like it has been for the past decade.

Going into this race everyone assumed that it would be the “Smart Falcon Show” because of how dominating the colt had been in his previous eight races, wiring each one.

Since November 3rd 2010, this son of Gold Allure (also the sire of dirt champ Espoir City that ran in the Breeders Cup in 2010), has been unbeaten. He started his win streak in the November 3rd Japan Breeders’ Cup (JBC) Classic (JPN-1, 1800m), beating several top horses, including Darley’s multiple G1 winner Furioso. At the end of November he easily captured the Urawa Kinen (JPN-2, 2000m). A month later he won the 2010 Tokyo Daishoten easily over Furioso yet again.

He has been lightly races this year, he didn’t debut until May, when he won the Daio Lite Kinen (JPN-2, 2400m) by a sensational EIGHT lengths before claiming the Teio Sho (G1, 2000m), which also was made an internationally recognized G1 race this year, over dirt champion Espoir City by NINE lengths. He looked unstoppable. This is when talks of Dubai started really catch on.

He came back after a three month break and easily captured the Nihon TV Hai (JPN-2, 1800m) without being challenged. A little over a month later he repeated his performance in the JBC Classic (JPN-1, 2000m), this time prevailing over Dubai World Cup runner up Transcend by a length. His shortest margin in two years, but also his toughest competition in quite a while.

There had been talks of him starting a month later in the Japan Cup Dirt (G1, 1800m) but he backed out in favor of the Tokyo Daishoten (G1, 2000m). His trainer Ken Kozaki, said that he was  a little tired coming out of the JBC Classic and wanted to give him more of a rest between races.

That brings us up to date to the particular performance he gave yesterday in the Daishoten. Everything expected him to run away with it, but the blooming son of Charismatic, 5 year old Wonder Acute, wasn’t going to give up that easily. Wonder Acute ran about a length behind Smart Falcon all the way around the track then battled him tooth and nail all the way down to the wire. They were stride for stride when they hit the wire. I was certain Wonder Acute had slain a giant. Unfortunately the stewards called the photo in favor of Smart Falcon.

Smart Falcon’s reign might be coming to an end. Maybe he peaked this summer? I have been skeptical of this colt for a while. Why would I be skeptical of a horse who wins by 8 and 9 lengths?

Mainly because he doesn’t race in JRA races. Japan, as I have mentioned before has two racing circuits. The JRA is the nationally run racing organization that is the face of Japanese racing to most countries around the world. It is where Orfevre, Buena Vista, Deep Impact, Vodka, Nakayama Festa, Victoire Pisa, all competed when they were in Japan. It is typically considered the place where all the ‘good’ horses go. Especially the turf ones. The JRA hosts dirt races, but it doesn’t really have the same graded race structure for dirt races as it does for turf. It allows the locally run tracks (similar to the US, each prefecture has a racing association) take care of the dirt races. Local racing is entirely dirt. Many of the ‘good’ dirt horses still stay registered with the JRA while some of the not as good ones becomes ‘local’ horses. Furioso, for example, is a ‘local’ horse who is also quite good. They exist, it just seems that the JRA horses are always a bit better, usually winning the graded stakes races that they are entered in on the local circuits.

Smart Falcon is a JRA registered horse, but he has not raced in a JRA race since August 10th, 2008. Sure he has come up against other JRA horses on the local circuit, but he hasn’t beaten them on their home bases. The reasons behind this have been purely financial. He is more likely to bring home the ‘win’ purse on the local circuit. Which I think made since his first year. But my point in all this is that as they start to consider taking him abroad, wouldn’t it be wise to try him about against stronger competition at home before spending all that cash to just get beat abroad?

I think they might have missed their shot at taking him abroad successfully. But he could always show me up in the spring. He is obviously a very talented horse, and has beaten Transcend and Espoir City. To me, if they are serious about going to Dubai, they should run him in the February Stakes (G1, 1600m) at Tokyo Racecourse on February 19th. Transcend will be there, preparing to try again at the Dubai World Cup.

Smart Falcon’s connections have cooled their heals a bit after his photo finish win. They don’t know when/where he will run next. They want to check him out carefully to make sure he isn’t injured or sick before making any future plans. So is Smart Falcon Dubai material? I guess we will find out next year.

As for Wonder Acute, Charismatic fans should be thrilled. This 5 year old has really done well. It has taken some time for him to reach G1 caliber, he has tried and failed several times. He has now placed in two G1 races, the Tokyo Daishoten (G1, 2000m) and the much more prestigious Japan Cup Dirt (G1, 1800m). This summer he won the Tokai Stakes (G2, 1800m) and also has two other graded wins, the Sirius Stakes (G3, 20000m) and the Musashino Stakes (G3, 1600m). He is by far Charismatic’s best progeny to date and could lead to some better mares knocking on his sire’s door.

Video of the 2011 Tokyo Daishoten